History offers powerful precedents for moments of profound technological transformation. In the prelude to World War I, the British Royal Navy’s visionary shift from coal to oil, thanks to Winston Churchill, provided a decisive strategic advantage that reshaped maritime power. This successful transition illustrates how embracing nascent infrastructural shifts can redefine national capabilities and international standing. Today, the global community finds itself at a similar inflexion point, driven by the rapid advancements of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Quantum Technologies, also called AQ. This technological revolution is opening up unprecedented opportunities for progress, compelling a positive and strategic evolution in the practice of foreign diplomacy and global governance. The entities that master AI and its underlying computational infrastructure seem poised to emerge as key leaders in the 21st century, much as oil wealth influenced the leadership landscape of the last.

An Evolving Global Stage with New Actors

The geopolitical landscape is expanding, characterised by the emergence of new and influential actors in the last decades: “Digital Nation-States”. Major technology companies now possess economic power and influence that rivals many countries, operating a global digital infrastructure that facilitates worldwide communication and commerce. Only Facebook has more “citizens” than any other country. Their platforms and services are creating a dynamic of “privatised governance,” where digital standards and norms are being shaped in new ways. This evolution is fostering innovative dialogues between the public and private sectors, leading to a re-evaluation of digital sovereignty and the development of new models for global interaction that balance national interests with the open nature of the internet. There is more collaboration than ever before between foreign policy and private sectors. 

The New Diplomatic Competency: Understanding the AI Full-Stack

A new effective diplomacy is emerging: a sophisticated understanding of the technology that underpins our modern world. This competency involves a grasp of the entire “AI full-stack”—from the physical data centres and their significant energy requirements to the intricate algorithms and software applications they enable. This knowledge is becoming increasingly integral to statecraft, as a nation’s data infrastructure is now a key strategic asset for economic growth and innovation. The deep connection between technology and energy is also paving the way for new strategic partnerships focused on sustainable development and energy security. As diplomats engage in negotiations on everything from trade to climate, their growing fluency in these technical domains allows the crafting of more robust, informed, and forward-looking international agreements. We’re seeing a role reversal where leading tech CEOs tour the globe with the attention and influence of national leaders, and prime ministers, in turn, are announcing technology deals, a domain once exclusive to company executives.

The Flourishing of Multilateral Tech Diplomacy

The inherently global nature of AI is fostering a new era of multilateral cooperation. Challenges such as ensuring cybersecurity, establishing shared ethical principles, and governing cross-border data flows transcend national boundaries, making collaborative international dialogue essential. In response, diplomatic practice is evolving. We are witnessing a powerful synergy between technical experts and foreign policy professionals, creating a holistic approach to complex negotiations.

In forums around the world, diplomatic strategies are adapting to this new reality. By applying established negotiation principles, such as focusing on underlying interests rather than fixed positions and creatively exploring options for mutual gain, diplomats are successfully finding common ground on complex tech issues. This collaborative spirit is essential for building consensus and moving forward together.

This dynamic era of engagement highlights a timeless truth of international relations, aptly captured in the maxim, “You’re either at the table or on the menu”. The choices made in multilateral forums today are actively paving the way for a future where emerging technologies can serve as powerful tools for global progress. As the very foundations of 21st-century leadership are being established, the essential question for every nation becomes clear: how will it choose to participate in this defining moment—will it be at the table, or on the menu?

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By Fernando Dominguez Pinuaga, alumnus of the Diplomacy, Negotiation and Policy programme.

Image generated by Gemini